PARIS (George Eddy's International Show) - Despite all the surprising results in the first two rounds of the NBA playoffs, we still end up with series of Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs v Oklahoma City Thunder in the Conference Finals as expected!

In the West, the big difference is that OKC with be without Serge Ibaka, out with a calf injury and Tony Parker is once again slowed by a hamstring injury as he was in the last three games of the 2013 NBA Finals.

Ibaka was essential in bothering Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan but the Spurs don't post up as much as they used to. With Ibaka out, the Thunder will play small with Kevin Durant at the 4 spot which will cause problems for the Spurs by speeding up the pace and getting more playing time for up-and-comer Reggie Jackson who can score in flurries.

San Antonio wants to control the pace and find open shots in the half-court drive-and-kick style that they master but they don't want a run-and-gun marathon against the younger Thunder, especially with Parker slowed down and Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili nearing 40.

The Spurs dominated the Portland Trail Blazers thanks to Tony but still blew them out in Game 5 by 22 when he went down after 10 minutes and zero points. If Parker can get back to 90 percent capacity, that should be sufficient to qualify the Spurs but if he is severely slowed or absent, OKC should go through.

In the East, Miami looks like a bigger and bigger favorite the way they blew through the first two rounds. They looked physically fit and less fatigued after playing only nine games so far compared to 13 for Indiana and OKC and 12 for San Antonio.

Of course, Indiana is more battle-tested having lost two home games against the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards but they also won two games in each series on their opponent's home floor. Let's say they are unpredictable but some positive signs are popping up like the re-awakening of Roy Hibbert, improved team defense against Washington and a top-notch team performance on offense in Sunday's Game 1 against Miami with the five starters all scoring at least 15 points.

Will Paul George continue to rise to the occasion in his superstar match-up with LeBron James and recover his reputation which has been somewhat tarnished since the All-Star break because of Indiana's inconsistency and lack of chemistry.

In both series, two key players are walking time bombs - Lance Stephenson and Russell Westbrook. The more these two harness their energy, control their emotions and stay on the same page with their superstars, the more their teams have a good chance of winning!

My formula would be that if Westbrook has 10 assists, then OKC wins. And if Lance gets a double-double, then Indiana wins.

Russell had 41 assists in the four wins against the Clippers and Lance had a near double-double in the Game 1 victory against Miami.

This doesn't mean I underestimate Miami's and San Antonio's chances because in reality THEY are the favorites to qualify once again for the NBA Finals.

If Miami increases its defensive intensity and forces the Pacers to play a lot of one-on-one by cutting off the passing lanes, Indiana might start doubting and pouting again. If San Antonio controls the tempo and hits a high percentage on open three-point shots while Kawhi Leonard lowers Durant's percentages, then the Spurs will qualify thanks to their homecourt advantage.

The only thing I'm really sure of is that this is going to be fun to watch!

George Eddy

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