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June 2016
10/06/2016
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Which five WOQT teams will reach Rio 2016?

NANTES (2016 FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament) - The time of reckoning is almost upon the 12 teams playing at the 2016 FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament (WOQT) in France. FIBA columnists Julio Chitunda, Paul Nilsen and Jeff Taylor offered their opinions about what is going to take place in Nantes in this roundtable discussion.

Julio: No doubt the European teams are favorites. No European team has ever been to the WOQT Fifth-Place Game to reach the Olympics. Whichever team will come to face the European sides in the Quarter-Finals, chances are they might lose. 

Jeff: The European teams were very good at the last two WOQTs. They are 8-0 in the Quarter-Finals. We're talking about Belarus, the Czech Republic, Latvia and hosts Spain in 2008 and Turkey, France, the Czechs and Croatia in 2012. Paul, are France, No. 4 in the FIBA World Ranking Women, a lock to get a berth?

Paul: While history has had examples of hosts choking, the leadership of Celine Dumerc and Endene Miyem, a fervent home support and impressive major tournament pedigree should see France through. Julio?

It's the combination of a talented roster led by Adaora Elonu and the sense of desperation to win and reach Rio that makes this Nigeria team a threat. - Julio Chitunda

Julio: As well as the home court advantage factor, hosts France are so familiar with the big stage that it might take them just three games to ensure a place in Rio.

Jeff: France and Spain are cast-iron certainties. I love the way the Spanish team, No. 3 in the World Ranking, get out on the break and run. I love their moxie. They had it in abundance two years ago.

Paul: Spain are a second lock as they also have big game know-how, a superb backcourt in Laia Palau and Marta Xargay, the dynamic Alba Torrens - as well as a fantastic coach in Lucas Mondelo. Not progressing is unthinkable after missing London 2012.

Julio: Torrens could set the tone for Spain after winning two major trophies this season - EuroLeague Women and Russian Championship - as well as helping her country qualify for next summer's EuroBasket Women. Along with Sancho Lyttle, Torrens, a 1.91m forward, is looking to complete a perfect season with a ticket to Rio.

My expectation is for Belarus to finish top of Group C and then face China in a humdinger of a Quarter-Final. Belarus have bad memories of China, losing against them in knockout games at the 2008 Olympics and the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship. - Jeff Taylor

Jeff: Spain and France have an abundance of talent and will finish top of their respective groups before winning the Quarter-Finals to clinch Olympic berths. Lyttle is the leader in steals in the WNBA and could be the best player at the WOQT. The only thing that can stop her is jet lag. Spain suffered a 54-52 defeat to a physical New Zealand side in Gijon on Wednesday. Lyttle will always help in that regard. While Spain won't fall to either China or Venezuela, France may struggle against Cuba or the Kiwis. France should have enough weapons to win both Group A games.

Paul: I cautiously go with Turkey as the third-place team. I do have concerns they are in transition and must shoot well from outside to succeed. But the return of Nevriye Yilmaz and Birsel Vardarli Demirmen hands them incredible veteran leadership for the critical moments and that’s priceless.

Julio: Because of its quality and experienced roster, I don't think Turkey will have trouble beating Argentina and Cameroon in Group B before seeing off Cuba in the Quarter-Finals.

Jeff: I had my doubts a few weeks ago but now, I see Turkey reaching the Quarter-Finals and then winning against Cuba or New Zealand. Turkey have been very impressive in the build-up. I'm looking forward to seeing Olcay Cakir, the young Turkish player that hit that big-time 3-pointer near the end of the Russia game which got Turkey the WOQT place.

In my opinion, the teams that definitely will not claim berths for Rio are Cameroon, Nigeria, Venezuela, Argentina and Korea. I like Belarus and I like China.

Paul: Belarus will be vulnerable after punching above their weight to reach the last four at EuroBasket Women 2015. Yelena Leuchanka and Anastasiya Verameyenka can dominate inside, Lindsey Harding is solid at point guard, but much will hinge on Katsiaryna Snytsina on the wing and their bench production. They should progress - even if they look one-dimensional at times.

Jeff: Julio, you're shaking your head...

Julio: Belarus could finish its Group Phase undefeated, but it wouldn't beat China in the Quarter-Finals. I am assuming the Chinese will finish second in Group D behind Spain and ahead of Venezuela.

I find myself agonizing between China and Cuba. The former has the ultimate veteran coach in Tom Maher and played well at the global level at the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship. But have they learned from last year's humiliation by Japan in the Final of the FIBA Asia Women’s Championship when they didn’t produce at all. - Paul Nilsen

Jeff: Belarus had a great start at last year's EuroBasket Women but then struggled against full-court pressure. I'm not 100 percent convinced by them, even with their experienced frontline of Leuchanka, Verameyenka and Snytsina, and point guard Lindsey Harding. My expectation is for Belarus to finish top of Group C and then face China in a humdinger of a Quarter-Final. Belarus have bad memories of China, losing to them in knockout games at the 2008 Olympics and the 2014 World Championship. 

Paul: If not Belarus, Julio, then who?

Julio: Nigeria, which I believe could finish second in Group C, would advance to the Fifth-Place Game by beating Cuba in the qualification and it would have plenty of time to regroup, make adjustments and face off against Belarus in the "grande final' Fifth-Place Game. I don't foresee Nigeria losing two games in a row against Belarus.

Paul: I find myself agonizing between China and Cuba. The former has the ultimate veteran coach in Tom Maher and played well at the global level at the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship. But have they learned from last year's humiliation by Japan in the Final of the FIBA Asia Women's Championship when they didn't produce at all? Do they have more than Shao Ting?

Julio: There is no way the Chinese come up short of a fourth-straight Olympic appearance. A disciplined team that gives everything on the court, China feels it belongs in the Olympic family and the return of three-time Olympian Nan Chen suggests the Far East giants are prepared to do whatever it takes to reach Rio.

Jeff: I wouldn't stake my life on it, but I'll give Belarus the edge over China in their Quarter-Final. I see China making it to the last game which determines the fifth Olympic qualifier. They could face New Zealand or Cuba. The Tall Ferns did beat them 12 years ago when Maher was their coach to reach the Quarter-Finals in Athens and they did beat Spain this week, a real shock, but I think China would have a little too much.

Paul: My instinct says don't back against Maher and a team that was in the top six in the world and I was going to plump for Cuba. But as it looks like they will be without the dominant Yamara Amargo, it could be tough - even if they have other classy players on board. Still, I am going to say China - but only just.

Jeff: Julio, in picking Nigeria, you're going out on a limb. African women's basketball in major tournaments over the years is for me too strong of an indicator about the gulf in class that persists. You beg to differ, though.

Julio: Yes, Nigeria lost both warm-up games to Turkey, didn’t play well, however, it’s its combination of a talented roster - led by Adaora Elonu - and the sense of desperation to win and reach Rio that makes this Nigeria team a threat.

Columnists' picks

Jeff: France, Spain, Belarus, Turkey and China.

Paul: Spain, France, Turkey, Belarus and China.

Julio: Spain, France, Turkey, Nigeria and China.

Let us know your picks in the comments section!

FIBA