Charlotte (Steve Goldberg's Wheel World) - One of my favorite all-time movie quotes comes from the 1942 classic Casablanca where no matter what criminal activity happens, the French police captain always responds, "Round up the usual suspects!"

Not just my favorite. It was ranked #32 on the American Film Institute's list of the top 100 movie quotations from U.S. cinema.

All of which leads me to this: with two of the four IWBF zone qualifiers completed, 8 of 12 men's and 8 of 10 women's teams are now set for next year's Paralympic Games tournament in Rio de Janeiro including almost all of "the usual suspects" for medal contention.

So, one year out from the start of the Paralympics, who do I like from the round-up so far? Considering what I saw at the Americas and European tournaments, there is no clear favorite on either side for gold. But there are definite contenders. Plenty of them actually.

Germany won its first global title since 1984 at London 2012 but then lost the European title to the Dutch in 2013 and finished second to Canada in the 2014 IWBF World Championships before reclaiming European supremacy earlier this month with a 72-62 win over the Oranje.

A contender in the 1990s and still the second best team in Europe for 10 years after that, the Netherlands reintroduced themselves to the elite in London, leading Germany after three quarters in the semifinal and then trouncing the USA for bronze. They are now all-in having taken the European crown in 2013.

The USA-Canada final at the Parapan American Games was an instant classic with the Americans closing out an 80-72 win that showcased the strength of both teams.

An untouchable team that won four world and three Paralympic titles from 1992 to 2006, Canada didn't make another final for the next eight years, a skein that ended, as noted, with world championship gold last year. They are back in the mix.

The Americans, after winning Paralympic gold in 2004 and 2008 along with a world title in 2010, had a disappointing fourth-place finish in London and the same result in the 2014 worlds. The team in transition showed in Toronto that they have found their identity and should be even better by Rio.

On the men's side, Great Britain, Turkey, Germany, the USA, Canada are all going to be in the mix with a second tier including the Netherlands and Spain.

In the qualifiers, only the Americans went undefeated but the Americas zone is not as competitive as Europe.

The Brits started slow but finished strong to win their third straight Euro title. If they can play an entire tournament like they played the medal round this year, they could claim Paralympic gold for the first time.

Turkey and Germany were the teams in form and each looked good enough to win Europe but proved they still have to learn how to win when it counts. Spain needs that lesson to a greater extent.

The USA men haven't been on the top step of the podium since the 2002 World Championships. They did take silver in the Worlds both last year and in 2006, to go with a bronze in 2010. They were bronze medalists in London after losing an epic Semi-Final to Canada who then claimed gold. In Toronto last month however, the Americans blew up Canada with a dominating win in the Parapans.

Defending Paralympic champions Canada are also seeking a new identity mixing new blood with seasoned veterans but without the retired Patrick Anderson. I'm not predicting anything here but Anderson had retired from international play once before, after Beijing. Without him, Canada contends. With him, well… see the Chicago Bulls 1991-98.

Three more men's squads will come from the Asia Oceania zone qualifier that tips off in Chiba, Japan on 7 October and one from the Africa tournament which begins on 30 October in Algiers, Algeria. One women's team from each zone will be added as well. It will be the first time that a women's team from Africa will compete in a Paralympic Games.

Quite probably, Australia will be sending both the Rollers (men) and Gliders (women) to Brazil and those squads are always among the usual suspects.

The men have to be considered a lock as they are the defending two-time IWBF world championship title holders. But this year has put what could be a significant bump in the road for the Rollers as several of their key players are not competing in the national club season as their club is boycotting the season.

The Gliders though will have to best both Japan and China and that's not a given.

Before I go, I’d like to give an Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, Oy! Oy! Oy! shout-out to Dylan Alcott who won a gold medal with the Rollers in 2008 and silver in 2012.

Alcott recently won the quad singles title at the U.S. Open tennis tournament and is looking to go for gold in Brazil in a second sport.

For the contenders and Alcott, there's another classic element from Casablanca which is the song 'As Time Goes By'. It includes these lyrics that are as true of sport as of anything else.

It's still the same old story,
A fight for love and glory,
A case of do or die

When the whistle blows, you've got to bring your A-game. You must remember that.

Steve Goldberg

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

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