Paulo-Kennedy-Column
19/09/2014
Paulo Kennedy's view from Downunder
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Opal time, who will shine?

MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy's View from Downunder) - A friend gave me a great intro into this column about the Opals as they attempt to win their ninth medal in the past 10 major championships at Turkey 2014.

Perhaps inspired by an online warrior, he asked 'Is Tessa Lavey the Dante Exum of the Opals?'

For those who don't know, Lavey is the promising 21-year-old picked as the third ball-handler for the Aussies for the FIBA World Championship for Women, starting on 27 September.

Of course, Dante Exum is Australia's former junior superstar who was recently drafted by the Utah Jazz and picked up invaluable experience - while struggling badly against quality opposition - at Spain 2014.

And the answer is no, Tessa is not Dante of the women's scene.

The reason is Lavey has never been considered close to the best junior prospect on the planet, never dominated junior world championships and doesn't possess elite physical tools like the lightning-quick Exum.

That's why the 21-year-old's selection for Turkey 2014 has been greeted with questions from basketball followers around the country.

As a scholarship holder at Basketball Australia's Centre of Excellence, Lavey has obviously been earmarked as a future talent, but many observers believe she is not yet ready for the game's toughest challenge, particularly in its toughest position as a floor general.

Does that make it a bad selection by coach Brendan Joyce and his panel?

Given very little of the Opals' preparation was done in front of the Australian public's eyes, it is impossible to really know, and the coaching staff saw plenty that we didn't. 

So I think it's too early to make judgement, especially given Lavey led the team in assists three times on their recent European tour. 

Cool leader
One player who certainly made her selection a no-brainer is newly-discovered Aussie Leilani Mitchell, who moved Downunder to play last year as a tribute to her late Indigenous Australian mother.

The WNBA-experienced point guard has not only kept the team's offence ticking over, she has shown her big-game persona by hitting a couple of clutch shots across both Asian and European tours.

That cool head will be crucial in crunch World Championship games, and if the pint-sized Mitchell can deal with the multiple ball-screens she will have to face defensively then Australia will have found a gem.

New combo
The interesting question for Opals fans is how the brand new combination of Mitchell and Erin Phillips - who arrives with her second WNBA championship - will work and how coach Joyce will use them.

The pair give two different looks at point guard, while they could certainly provide a tough combo together. They will certainly be asked to carry a lot of work dogging the ball defensively by their intense coach.

Of course, that's why people have raised questions about the selection of Lavey. If she can't provide back-up it may limit how much Mitchell and Phillips can play together, and provide headaches if foul trouble or injury strike.

But as I said above, the proof will be in the pudding in this one.

Spider time
One 21-year-old who's left no doubt about her place in the green and gold is Bec 'Spider' Allen, who has turned an outstanding end to the WNBL into the launch pad for her international career.

Not only has her immense length created issues for opponents, Allen showed she can also score at this level with quality offensive performances against Canada and the Czech Republic.

With the previously injury-stricken Rachel Jarry showing some incredibly exciting form towards the end of the European tour, Belinda Snell still rock solid and Penny Taylor fresh off a title in the USA, the Opals appear to have an exciting wing crew to capitalise on Joyce's aggressive style.

Questions inside
With three-quarters of the London 2012 frontcourt - Lauren Jackson, Abby Bishop and Suzy Batkovic - missing, this area perhaps poses the biggest questions.

Can Liz Cambage produce at the high level she did in London with the extra attention that being the number one option brings? And has her fitness level improved in the past two years to allow a more consistent performance, particularly at the defensive end.

Can Cayla Francis and Marianna Tolo convert their strong form in Europe into significant roles at the international level? Does Natalie Burton have the strength to compete at this standard.

And perhaps most importantly, can Laura Hodges repeat her incredible step up in WNBL performance to give that inside-outside touch the team needs?

One other hole I see in the frontcourt is the lack of a mobile big who can give this team another source of speed and versatility, something that would fit Joyce's approach.

But while there are plenty of questions, there is also plenty of talent up front. And with a crunch group game against Belarus and potential knockout clashes with Spain, Turkey and France, the European experience of Hodges, Francis and Tolo could also prove very valuable.

How will they go?
That's the big question, but the answer is tough to pin down as Joyce's style of game is still an unknown in major tournament play.

The Opals lead-up form has been solid, suggesting they have what it takes to win the group if the defence performs well, both in terms of getting stops and generating some easy points.

Whether this team is familiar enough with each other, and their coach, to win possession-by-possession contests deep into the tournament remains to be seen.

Like the Boomers, it's clear the end game is Rio 2016.

But what is also clear is any team with Cambage, Taylor, Phillips, Snell, Mitchell and an in-form Hodges, alongside savvy veterans and young guns like Allen and Jarry is as good a chance a medal chance as any team not named the USA.

Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

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Paulo Kennedy

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo has joined our team of columnists with a weekly column called 'The View from Downunder', where he looks at pertinent issues in the world of basketball from an Oceania perspective, perhaps different to the predominant points of view from columnists in North America and Europe.