9 Tony Parker (FRA)
01/08/2016
George Eddy's International Show
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Olympic Twilight Zone

PARIS (George Eddy's International Show) - Many of the stars at the upcoming Rio 2016 Olympic Basketball Tournament are approaching the twilight of their careers.

From the San Antonio Spurs teammates Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to Spain's Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro, these Olympic Games will be their last and they all want to go out with a bang!

An Olympic tournament is really a question of cream rising to the top because only 12 teams compete compared to 24 in a FIBA Basketball World Cup or FIBA EuroBasket.

The formula has been improved and this will provide several days of rest for the teams and a higher quality of play. No more 9am starting times for games as the groups will alternate days with only three games played each day. Same thing in the Final Phase, when the women and the men will alternate days in the same arena from the Quarter-Finals on.

When we compare the two groups in the men's tournament, it seems obvious that four teams should rise above the others pretty quickly in Group A because China and Venezuela seem less strong whereas designating the top four in Group B could come down to the last game or to point differential!

At the very least, there are five teams for four spots in Group B if Nigeria have problems after the last minute defection of Al-Farouq Aminu because of insurance concerns.

As usual, the USA are mega-favorites to win the gold medal despite a long list of NBA stars absent for different reasons. Their reservoir of talent is so deep that even a B team or C team remains favorite! Their level of performance and ambition won't vary because of the strong infrastructure that Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski have put into place during the last 10 years of their undefeated reign over international competition. That famous Semi-Final loss to Greece at the 2006 FIBA Basketball World Cup in Saitama was the starting point because the USA players and staff learned to covet their national team participation but also to respect and know their opponents!

When you've got a starting five like Team USA this year you can be confident and take on all comers! Kyrie Irving - author of the three-point shot heard around the world in the Game 7 of the NBA Finals - at the point, with Klay Thompson - who made a playoff record 11 three-pointers in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semi-Finals in Oklahoma City to save his Warriors - alongside Kevin Durant, the former MVP and four-time NBA scoring champ, Paul George - the ultimate Team USA comeback kid - (or the experienced Carmelo Anthony) and DeMarcus Cousins, the best all-around center in the NBA today.

You can add a very long and talented bench and this squad looks like a modern day Dream Team. They may lack some experience and their schedule of warm-up games was too easy but you've still got the last two World Cup MVPs in Durant and Irving!

Since Group A crosses paths with Group B, the key for the USA will be to improve their team play in each game the first week in order to prepare for the second week;s knockout round where there won't be any easy opponents.

This is even more important for France, Serbia and Australia who have a smaller margin for error than the USA. If we consider that the reigning champions will win all of their games, then the match-ups between these three teams will be decisive in order to avoid Spain or Lithuania in the Quarter-Finals. Croatia could surprise us if head coach Alexander Petrovic, Drazen's brother, can avoid picking up untimely technical fouls!

Brazil and Argentina are both aging squads but still full of pride and experience in the image of Luis Scola, Argentina's deserving flag-bearer for the opening ceremony. Argentina's win over Serbia in a recent warm-up game shows their potential but over a two-week period, aging teams can have a tendency to peter out. Milos Teodosic injured his finger in that loss to Argentina and Serbia is hoping and praying that he will be fit to compete in Rio.

In my humble opinion, after the USA, teams like Spain, France, Serbia and Lithuania are at about the same level with Croatia and Australia not far behind. France, Serbia and Croatia have the advantage of arriving in Rio more battle-tested thanks to their participations in the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments (OQTs).

Brazil plays at home and know how much the country needs some positive vibes at these Olympics whereas Argentina won gold in 2004 with the same key players that make up the team today. This is similar to France and the last dance for the Parker-Boris Diaw-Florent Pietrus generation, who dream of beating, for example, Spain in the Semi-Final and the USA in the Final to end their 15 years on the national team with a glorious apotheosis! Who knows?

Spain have often shown a tendency to start off slow in these international competitions but to finish very strong like they did at last summer's Eurobasket in France. Once again, Marc Gasol will not be there but head coach Sergio Scariolo knows how to use his brother, Pau, better than anyone!

If France meet Spain again, they will need a plan to slow down Pau with more double teams and different defensive looks instead of just leaving Rudy Gobert to fend for himself! The improvement of youthful players like Nando DeColo, Nicolas Batum and Gobert may be enough to push France past Spain, whose key stars like Navarro, Rudy Fernandez or Sergio Rodriguez had less impressive seasons than in the past.

Despite this, Spain have a talented and experienced roster and will be fully battle-tested for the second week because of the very high level of Group B!

You know me, I'm not one to shy away from a prediction so I'll choose: 1. USA; 2. France (my sentimental favorite); 3. Spain.

What do you think?

George Eddy

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.

George Eddy

George Eddy

George Eddy, a former pro player and coach in France, has been covering basketball for Canal Plus TV since 1985. He is probably the only commentator in the world to have announced so many Olympics, NBA games, FIBA events and even Super Bowls over the last 29 years. The International Show will bring you his perspective on the NBA and its ever-growing international contingent.