MUNICH (FIBA EuroBasket 2017 Qualifiers) – The curtain drops on the FIBA EuroBasket 2017 Qualifiers campaign on Saturday night and six of the 11 tickets to next year’s big event are still to meet their rightful holder while five teams (Russia, Belgium, Hungary, Montenegro, Slovenia) are already through.

For the 10 teams that enter the final gameday with options, varying from very strong to quite remote, of securing one of the remaining six berths still on offer, Saturday is the most important day of the year. These teams are Iceland, Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Great Britain, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina, who are not in action on Saturday and will therefore simply follow developments nervously.

For Slovenia and Montenegro meanwhile the final day of the Qualifiers is also important because, although they have clinched qualification, they have the chance to also take first place in their respective group and therefore improve their ranking ahead of the draw for FIBA EuroBasket 2017.

Jaka Blazic of Slovenia, Arvin Slagter of Netherlands, Tornike Shengelia of Georgia and Justin Doellman of Kosovo will not take part in Saturday’s action, adding to a list that already included Zoran Dragic, Sasha Vezenkov and Tibor Pleiss.

You can read a detailed explanation of each team’s options to qualify and permutations per group here. Below we take a closer look at the two Saturday clashes where qualification is at stake for both opponents.

Netherlands (4-1) vs. Germany (3-2) – Group B, 19:00 CEST

The Netherlands will take first place in the group if they win or if they lose by no more than three points while Germany need to win by at least four points to top the group. But the margin is really so razor-thin that you can be certain that both teams are mentally prepared to pull out all the stops to get the win and will leave the calculators in the locker room.

"We have to win on Saturday because I simply do not want to do the math," Netherlands head coach Toon Van Helfteren said to that effect. "I would rather we had won easily the Wednesday game against Denmark, because those extra five minutes (of overtime) will count as extra fatigue."

The loss of Arvin Slagter, who will be sidelined for at least four weeks with a knee issue, is an important blow for the Dutch but at least Mohamed Kherrazi should be able to play on Saturday despite suffering a minor injury.

"We are confident and I am convinced that we will be able to win in the Netherlands," said Germany head coach Chris Fleming. "We still have room to improve as far as rebounding and reducing the number of turnovers is concerned, but we will be ready on Saturday. We might not play the perfect game but if we play tough enough and move the ball well, we can be optimistic about the outcome."

In the reverse fixture, in Germany, Charlon Kloof scored all of his 20 points in the first half to propel the Dutch to a 75-71 win over their hosts. Crucial to the Netherlands’ success was the fact they out-rebounded Germany 33-27 and held them to only 39% shooting from the floor. Nicolas De Jong also had 20 points for the Dutch while Paul Zipser finished with 14 points and Maodo Lo collected 13 points and 8 assists in losing efforts.

Estonia (3-2) vs. Poland (4-1) – Group D, 19:00 CEST

Poland are in a considerably better position as a victory by any margin will give them first place in the group, while the catastrophic scenario they look to avoid is a defeat by 16 points or more (for the full range of scenarios in this group read here).

Estonia's primary goal is to get a win by 15 points (or more) and snatch top spot in the group and while it is by no means an easy task, they are a team that simply performs vastly better when they play in front of their fans and the organisers said on Thursday that they expect a full house at the University of Tartu Sports Hall on Saturday. Estonia defeated both Belarus and Portugal by 19 points at home, while they lost two games on the road by an average margin of 15 points.

Many wonder whether Poland are still a bit numb following their shocking home loss to Belarus on Wednesday, which came about after they played their 'worst game in the last year', in the words of winger Adam Waczynski. Poland head coach Mike Taylor however is in an upbeat mood and commented that his team are in a great position to achieve their goal and qualify for FIBA EuroBasket 2017.

"We have to forget about the game against Belarus and regroup as fast as possible," Waczynski said. "Our fate is in our hands, we depend entirely on ourselves and we will definitely give everything we have on Saturday."

In the reverse fixture in Lublin, veteran big man Maciej Lampe came up with a double-double of 17 points and 11 rebounds to lead Poland to a 78-64 win. The Polish win was not as comfortable as the score implies though, as the two teams were going neck-and-neck up until midway the third quarter. Estonia shot the ball much better from long-range (46% from three compared to Poland’s 25%) but the hosts won the battle on the glass, 39-26.

Saturday’s remaining games:
Group A: Cyprus vs. Switzerland at 16:00 CEST; Iceland vs. Belgium at 18:00 CEST
Group B: Denmark vs. Austria at 19:00 CEST
Group C: Russia vs. Sweden at 13:00 CEST
Group D: Portugal vs. Belarus at 19:00 CEST
Group E: Ukraine vs. Slovenia at 15:00 CEST; Kosovo vs. Bulgaria at 20:00 CEST
Group F: Albania vs. Slovak Republic at 19:00 CEST; Montenegro vs. Georgia at 21:00 CEST
Group G: Hungary vs. MKD at 16:30 CEST; Luxembourg vs. Great Britain at 19:30 CEST

FIBA